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RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a video - Today, 03:01 PM
Matthew Maton discusses his junior season and his outlook on 2014-15.
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RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Today, 01:51 PM
The Preseason Top 100 Boys ...
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jmca
Sleeping on my boy Brandt. Not surprised, Loyola tends to get overlooked every preseason year after year. I say he's top 20 by the end of the year.
Steve13
What about Robert Brandt? Fastest Junior on Mt. Sac last year in 14:43!
 
RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a video - Yesterday, 08:16 PM
Published on Aug 25, 2014 by Universal Sports Network ...
 
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RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Yesterday, 08:09 PM
 
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RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a video - Yesterday, 04:37 PM
Chris Bennett - Transition From Summer To Fall Training - Tuesday Tip 8/26/2014
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RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Yesterday, 02:50 PM
Hinsdale Central reloads, looks to repeat 2013 state championship   ...
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RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Yesterday, 02:45 PM
Reiser, Dale could be among the nation’s best   ...
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RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Yesterday, 11:11 AM
Alexa Efraimson Turns Pro, Signs With Nike By Doug Binder, DyeStat Editor ...
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RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Aug 25 2014, 10:14 PM
Preseason Northwest Region Top 5   ...
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watchout
191 Sam Truax 12 Central Catholic OR
189 Zack Lavier 11 Central Catholic OR
186 Jean Baptiste Tooley 12 Central Catholic OR
183 Gunnar Vik 12 Central Catholic OR
182 Sam Lomax 12 Central Catholic OR
181 Daniel Thompson 11 Central Catholic OR
165 Gavin Macpherson 10 Central Catholic OR
165 Harry Stewart 12 Central Catholic OR
165 Jackson Frank 11 Central Catholic OR
164 Michael McCausland 10 Central Catholic OR

207 Tanner Anderson 12 North Central WA
199 Justin Janke 11 North Central WA
188 Andrew Vandine 12 North Central WA
186 Sam Sjoberg 11 North Central WA
170 Jacob Christner 10 North Central WA
166 Hank Knight 10 North Central WA
164 Liam Taylor 12 North Central WA
162 Mica Jones 11 North Central WA
160 Caleb Landron 12 North Central WA
158 Zach Skalstad 12 North Central WA

199 Andrew Snyder 12 Kamiakin WA
187 Cameron Glade 12 Kamiakin WA
180 Jonathan Lafferty 12 Kamiakin WA
178 Phillip Fishburn 11 Kamiakin WA
176 Ben Brooks 12 Kamiakin WA
160 Braxton Gutierrez 10 Kamiakin WA
158 Travis Crumpler 11 Kamiakin WA

(note that Maton's rating would be higher if I included FLW/FLN, so don't take this to mean that I think Anderson is ~10 seconds faster than him)


By the way, while I'm at it, here's the rest of the top 8 (call these the "favorites to contend for a Top-3 regional finish") and what the score would be (ties unbroken, scores being the minimum possible) to show just how close it looks to me -

187 Jonah Babbel 12 Vallivue ID
182 Nick Hamilton 12 Vallivue ID
175 Vincent Groner 10 Vallivue ID
172 Porter Wilkes 11 Vallivue ID
170 Jesus DeLeon 12 Vallivue ID
170 Paul Page 12 Vallivue ID

187 Adamson Bryant 11 Eastlake WA
182 Nathan Pixler 11 Eastlake WA
179 Cade Falkner 10 Eastlake WA
171 Shane Cornfield 12 Eastlake WA
164 Ben Fixman 12 Eastlake WA
164 Grant Flindt 12 Eastlake WA
156 Jacob Keller 10 Eastlake WA


58 Central Catholic OR
64 North Central WA
91 Kamiakin WA
112 Gig Harbor WA
113 Summit OR
119 Central Valley WA
133 Eastlake WA
134 Vallivue ID
DontStopPre

watchout, on , said:

I actually have Gig Harbor, Summit and Central Valley (the unlisted #6 team) near dead-even.

Projected speed ratings -

200 Tristan Peloquin 12 Gig Harbor WA
185 Michael Hammer 12 Gig Harbor WA
179 Ryan Gregory 11 Gig Harbor WA
176 Jack Shields 10 Gig Harbor WA
169 Jake Quincey 12 Gig Harbor WA
163 Charlie Carpenter 12 Gig Harbor WA

204 Matthew Maton 12 Summit OR
181 Alex Martin 11 Summit OR
180 Tyler Jones 12 Summit OR
173 Chris Merlos 12 Summit OR
173 Matthew Sjogren 12 Summit OR
171 Grant Parton 12 Summit OR
158 Benjamin Wasserman 11 Summit OR

184 Briton Demars 12 Central Valley WA
181 Spencer Jensen 12 Central Valley WA
176 Caleb Nicholls 12 Central Valley WA
176 Colton Pegram 12 Central Valley WA
176 Stephen Heintz 12 Central Valley WA
160 Michael Nall 11 Central Valley WA


Summary -

The difference at #1 between GH/Summit is a wash - would only be a couple points difference. That is obviously where CV is hurting (in comparison).

The difference at #2 and #4 between GH and Summit is important - yes, moreso than the difference at #5 in elite fields (whether the actual NXN-NW field is deeper at the #3 or #4 or #5 spot is yet to be seen).

I wouldn't be surprised if Central Valley won state, and Summit beat Gig Harbor at some meet through the course of the year, then have those three finish in any order at NXN-NW.

(you could also argue that, given Gig Harbor's stronger tradition, they deserve the nod in case of a hypothetical "tie")

By the way, the battle for girls #4-6 spots is similarly fierce (the #6 team being Bellarmine Prep)


Thanks for posting those speed ratings. Sometimes when the teams are potentially so close in terms of points it's difficult for me to remember others "see" things different than me or do speed ratings different. But now that I see your ratings and your reasoning written out I get it. I do have Summit and Central Valley and Eastlake ahead of Gig Harbor, but like you it's very, VERY close. If you have the time and desire to post speed ratings of the top 3 teams I'd love to see them too. Thanks.
watchout

DontStopPre, on , said:

I think Gig Harbor is ranked too high (but I do agree with the other four teams and the order). Who do you have as Gig Harbor's #5 runner to rank them above Summit and other quality teans? Do you simply believe a #5 will emerge or are you using data from a #5 man? Even their #3 and #4 runners have more "potential" than experience. I would not be shocked if Gig Harbor ENDS UP as the 4th best NW team given their athletes, coach and track record but for now I see them as two very good runners, two runners that could potentially become good soon, then a bunch of question marks.
EDIT: It's not my intention to come across as critical towards Gig Harbor,in case any athletes or parent reads this. They will have yet another good season. I just don't know if I would rank them in the top 5 of what could be the NW Region's best year ever in terms of depth.


I actually have Gig Harbor, Summit and Central Valley (the unlisted #6 team) near dead-even.

Projected speed ratings -

200 Tristan Peloquin 12 Gig Harbor WA
185 Michael Hammer 12 Gig Harbor WA
179 Ryan Gregory 11 Gig Harbor WA
176 Jack Shields 10 Gig Harbor WA
169 Jake Quincey 12 Gig Harbor WA
163 Charlie Carpenter 12 Gig Harbor WA

204 Matthew Maton 12 Summit OR
181 Alex Martin 11 Summit OR
180 Tyler Jones 12 Summit OR
173 Chris Merlos 12 Summit OR
173 Matthew Sjogren 12 Summit OR
171 Grant Parton 12 Summit OR
158 Benjamin Wasserman 11 Summit OR

184 Briton Demars 12 Central Valley WA
181 Spencer Jensen 12 Central Valley WA
176 Caleb Nicholls 12 Central Valley WA
176 Colton Pegram 12 Central Valley WA
176 Stephen Heintz 12 Central Valley WA
160 Michael Nall 11 Central Valley WA


Summary -

The difference at #1 between GH/Summit is a wash - would only be a couple points difference. That is obviously where CV is hurting (in comparison).

The difference at #2 and #4 between GH and Summit is important - yes, moreso than the difference at #5 in elite fields (whether the actual NXN-NW field is deeper at the #3 or #4 or #5 spot is yet to be seen).

I wouldn't be surprised if Central Valley won state, and Summit beat Gig Harbor at some meet through the course of the year, then have those three finish in any order at NXN-NW.

(you could also argue that, given Gig Harbor's stronger tradition, they deserve the nod in case of a hypothetical "tie")

By the way, the battle for girls #4-6 spots is similarly fierce (the #6 team being Bellarmine Prep)
DontStopPre
I think Gig Harbor is ranked too high (but I do agree with the other four teams and the order). Who do you have as Gig Harbor's #5 runner to rank them above Summit and other quality teans? Do you simply believe a #5 will emerge or are you using data from a #5 man? Even their #3 and #4 runners have more "potential" than experience. I would not be shocked if Gig Harbor ENDS UP as the 4th best NW team given their athletes, coach and track record but for now I see them as two very good runners, two runners that could potentially become good soon, then a bunch of question marks.
EDIT: It's not my intention to come across as critical towards Gig Harbor,in case any athletes or parent reads this. They will have yet another good season. I just don't know if I would rank them in the top 5 of what could be the NW Region's best year ever in terms of depth.
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