{"comments":{"1179600":{"pb_id":"3300","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179600","comment_id":"1179600","member_id":"3300","comment":"

<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p>

\nNOTE: The following is in regards to my opinion on developing individual rankings only.<\/strong> Individual and team rankings are different animals IMO.
\n
\nBorderClash is an exception to the rule because it is an All Star contest that falls in the middle of a busy post-season schedule. It is not a championship meet, and it's place in the schedule - which varies for different athletes - doesn't always allow it to be a focus for the athletes. Usually, I think you can almost always throw out BorderClash results when considering who is the best runner IF you are talking about national title contenders. There are exceptions - Maton vs. Dressel vs. Hardy last year for example all seemed to be going at it - that's based on the combination of the 2 mile split times posted in the results and watching the video of the race (although, unfortunately, the video was only stationary cameras that year so we just got small bits of the race). So, last year, I think it's perfectly reasonable to consider the BC results for those three against eachother, but that definitely isn't always the case.
\n
\nI don't think you can "throw out" results from a meet like State, NXN\/FLN Regional or NXN\/FLN National. BorderClash, despite it being a meet in November, just isn't the same. It's a fun experience and a state "rivalry", but it is in the middle of a crowded post-season schedule for those racing NXN-NW and looking towards either NXN or FLW (which is usually a good amount of the top WA\/OR athletes).
\n
\nMid season invites, though? For individuals, it's hard to justify throwing any of those out in terms of head to head results<\/span> but for caliber-of-performance comparisons or team rankings that might differ.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nWell, we agree that individual and team rankings are different animals.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 6:30pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"Joe Lanzalotto","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=3300","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/Joe-Lanzalotto.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"7321"},"1179599":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179599","comment_id":"1179599","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>Joe Lanzalotto, on , said:<\/p>

\nThen your rankings risk being viewed as arbitrary. How is the ranker to know how hard a runner could have gone but didn't or more importantly how is a ranker to know what a runner has a sub-par performance and simply says "I wasn't going all out"? The rankings are either based on what actually happened in a given period of time or they are not. I certainly can accept rankings from someone whose knowledge, insight and intelligence I trust that are based on what happened plus what the ranker thinks would happen. But that's a very different animal than rankings based solely on performance. At that point you've crossed the line from interpreting history to predicting the future. That's not bad, but it is different.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nNOTE: The following is in regards to my opinion on developing individual rankings only.<\/strong> Individual and team rankings are different animals IMO.
\n
\nBorderClash is an exception to the rule because it is an All Star contest that falls in the middle of a busy post-season schedule. It is not a championship meet, and it's place in the schedule - which varies for different athletes - doesn't always allow it to be a focus for the athletes. Usually, I think you can almost always throw out BorderClash results when considering individual rankings IF you are talking about national title contenders. There are exceptions - Maton vs. Dressel vs. Hardy last year for example all seemed to be going at it - that's based on the combination of the 2 mile split times posted in the results and watching the video of the race (although, unfortunately, the video was only stationary cameras that year so we just got small bits of the race). So, last year, I think it's perfectly reasonable to consider the BC results for those three against eachother, but that definitely isn't always the case.
\n
\nI don't think you can "throw out" results from a meet like State, NXN\/FLN Regional or NXN\/FLN National. BorderClash, despite it being a meet in November, just isn't the same. It's a fun experience and a state "rivalry", but it is in the middle of a crowded post-season schedule for those racing NXN-NW and looking towards either NXN or FLW (which is usually a good amount of the top WA\/OR athletes).
\n
\nEarly\/Mid\/Late season Invitationals, though? For individuals, it's hard to justify throwing any of those out in terms of head to head order of finish<\/span> but for caliber-of-performance comparisons or team rankings that might differ.
\n
\nDual meets, generally I think you can safely throw those out.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 6:28pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1179596":{"pb_id":"3300","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179596","comment_id":"1179596","member_id":"3300","comment":"

<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p>

\nI understand your point, but I don't think it has to be an "all or nothing" kind of approach.
\n
\nLet's take, for example, dual meets. They are part of the season for a great many teams around the nation. If a runner doesn't win there, but won a week before at a major invite against the same runners, should that runner be penalized in the rankings for not taking the dual meet seriously?
\n
\nNot all athletes (or teams) are going to take the same approach to the season. Some focus on one or two meets at the end of the year. Some focus on big mid-season showdowns. Some try to run their best every race, some train through meets. Some hold back and save themselves in certain races, some think they have to try to be Prefontaine every week.
\n
\nRanking individuals is tough because there are a whole lot of variables that should be considered. Obviously, head to head results is the biggest factor there because gauging how good winning individual performances is a whole different ballgame than gauging winning team performances (assuming the team in question doesn't sweep the meet).
\n
\nTo be clear on my position regarding the individual rankings for WA\/OR athletes: I think what happens head to head matters most, particularly at State and NXR\/NXN\/FLW\/FLN, HOWEVER I don't think BC is quite the same and doesn't necessarily say much about the runners (and therefore, shouldn't always be taken into consideration in rankings). Some runners do take the meet seriously, and I think it's perfectly fine to take those runner's performances into consideration, but I don't think other runners should be penalized for not taking the meet seriously when it doesn't fit into their plans for their season. The tricky part is usually trying to figure out who took the meet seriously and who didn't... if you have race video, splits, and\/or interviews to go off of, it's not hard to figure out as long as you have background knowledge to put things in perspective as well (which is why, when in doubt, I'd just discount BC results all together when talking about potential national champions).
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nThen your rankings risk being viewed as arbitrary. How is the ranker to know how hard a runner could have gone but didn't or more importantly how is a ranker to know what a runner has a sub-par performance and simply says "I wasn't going all out"? The rankings are either based on what actually happened in a given period of time or they are not. I certainly can accept rankings from someone whose knowledge, insight and intelligence I trust that are based on what happened plus what the ranker thinks would happen. But that's a very different animal than rankings based solely on performance. At that point you've crossed the line from interpreting history to predicting the future. That's not bad, but it is different.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 6:08pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"Joe Lanzalotto","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=3300","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/Joe-Lanzalotto.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"7321"},"1179595":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179595","comment_id":"1179595","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>dkap, on , said:<\/p>

\nDressel obviously believed BorderClash was important, and I'd go so far as to say that Maton and Anderson are the first runners in the history of the event who were favorites to win and felt otherwise.<\/strong> (Quotes to the contrary notwithstanding.) I don't believe you can pick and choose which races you deem unimportant when ranking the top athletes. If a football team rests key guys in an early season non-conference game, do you think the rankings committee would be forgiving of the loss? A blemish on the record is exactly that.<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nI'd disagree with that - you only have to look back at last year to see race favorites not take the race seriously (both Wilmot and Anderson). Anderson and Dressel were almost always neck and neck (their close rivalry being discussed earlier this year), and we saw the week before at state what it was like when Anderson was going all out: he not only stuck with every move Hardy and Dressel made, but took it another step to break away with a big move a little after 1.5 miles in and held on to the finish; Wilmot, when at his best, did the same thing; Dressel and Hardy raced the same way. That happened once again at state this year, Dressel made a BIG move (much bigger than Hardy's last year) a little earlier in the race - Anderson, that time, wasn't able to reel him in until a little after the 4k mark but ended up with a stronger finish than last year to break away for the win. None of that happened at BC last year: Dressel tried to break away early, while Maton and Hardy tried to reel him in while Anderson and Wilmot were content to run mid pack. Maton caught up with Dressel around 3k or 2 miles IIRC and Hardy closed the gap a little, but Anderson and Wilmot didn't move to the front of the chase pack until the last half mile or so -- when they were 20 seconds behind the leaders. That's far from their usual race, and makes perfect sense if you are treating the race like a very controlled effort (re: not gunning for the individual title).
\n
\nIndividual rankings in cross country are completely different than team rankings in football, and all-star competitions are not necessarily the same thing as invitationals or championships (or regular or post-season games).
\n
\nIt's fine if you want to consider BC results in your rankings. I don't have a problem with that. I just wouldn't have them included in mine (at least, not for the three guys in question this year, nor the NC\/GH\/CC guys last year).
\n
\n

<\/a>dkap, on , said:<\/p>

As far as the bolded part, haven't we established that the rankings are a reflection of what the athletes have done so far this year, rather than an attempt to say who is fastest? That's the inconsistency I'm seeing.<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nI think there is a notable difference between (and these are just some of the ways you can look at it):
\n1. "Who has the most spotless record"
\n2. "Who has been the most impressive this year"
\n3. "Who has had the greatest performance this year"
\n4. "Who is the best runner this year"
\n5. "Who is the fastest runner this year"
\n6. "Who is the best runner lately"
\n7. "Who is the fastest runner lately"
\nand
\n8. "Who would win the race if all the top athletes toed the line tomorrow"
\n
\nNot all of those things need to factor in EVERY single race with EXACTLY the same consideration for each, while still considering more than just "who has been" or "who is the fastest"... in fact, I'd say only the first one needs to take ALL races into consideration.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 5:53pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1179589":{"pb_id":"43675","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179589","comment_id":"1179589","member_id":"43675","comment":"

<\/a>Joe Lanzalotto, on , said:<\/p>

\n
\nThis was the Northwest Regional; they survived. We'll be fine at Bowdoin.
\n
\nAs far as the rankings go if you say that your rankings are a reflection of what the athlete has actually DONE this season but then make an exception and say "I know he wasn't going all out" you violate your own rule. On the other hand if you ignore the fact that a clearly superior runner did not DO it (yet) this season you risk looking foolish. Ain't an easy choice.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nI suspect most of the snow at Bowdoin Park will melt by Saturday, but some of the ground may get a bit soft in a few areas.
\n
\nAny rankings I post anyways reflect performance during the current season ... I used Cheserek as an exception because his less than all-out performances were still as good or better than his national competition.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 5:17pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"Bill Meylan","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43675","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/Bill-Meylan.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1073444"},"1179588":{"pb_id":"9184","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179588","comment_id":"1179588","member_id":"9184","comment":"

<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p>

\nWhat do you mean?
\n
\nI expressed my opinion that BorderClash doesn't really say who the best runner in the NW is.
\nI then explained why I think Fisher's argument for #1 is significantly different than Dressel's (or Anderson's or Maton's).
\nI pointed out that we have one race where two of the three runners at BorderClash pushed themselves to their limits, and expressed my opinion that that is what should be considered in any individual rankings.
\nI then re-iterated my opinion that what was essentially a meaningless meet for at least 2 of the 3 shouldn't be the prime factor in rankings, as it didn't really say anything about who is better than who.<\/strong>
\nAnd, finally, I explained my take on what some of the top individuals in WA\/OR face in regards to BC and why they might place differing importance on the meet.
\n
\nNot all runners treat every race equally. I wouldn't expect ALL rankings to take every race equally (some will, obviously, but others won't - and that's ok! different takes on the same information isn't a bad thing).
\n
\nI don't see how I'm being inconsistent if I place more importance on some meets than others, or pointing out that there are multiple ways you can approach rankings.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nDressel obviously believed BorderClash was important, and I'd go so far as to say that Maton and Anderson are the first runners in the history of the event who were favorites to win and felt otherwise. (Quotes to the contrary notwithstanding.) I don't believe you can pick and choose which races you deem unimportant when ranking the top athletes. If a football team rests key guys in an early season non-conference game, do you think the rankings committee would be forgiving of the loss? A blemish on the record is exactly that.
\n
\nAs far as the bolded part, haven't we established that the rankings are a reflection of what the athletes have done so far this year, rather than an attempt to say who is fastest? That's the inconsistency I'm seeing.
\n
\n

<\/a>Joe Lanzalotto, on , said:<\/p>

\nAs far as the rankings go if you say that your rankings are a reflection of what the athlete has actually DONE this season but then make an exception and say "I know he wasn't going all out" you violate your own rule.<\/strong> On the other hand if you ignore the fact that a clearly superior runner did not DO it (yet) this season you risk looking foolish. Ain't an easy choice.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nJoe and I don't always agree, but that's exactly my sentiment.
\n
\nDan","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 5:14pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"members\/avatar\/3295.jpg","pb_title":"dkap","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=9184","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/dkap.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"10044"},"1179587":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179587","comment_id":"1179587","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>Joe Lanzalotto, on , said:<\/p>

\nPosted Image
\n
\nThis was the Northwest Regional; they survived. We'll be fine at Bowdoin.
\n
\nAs far as the rankings go if you say that your rankings are a reflection of what the athlete has actually DONE this season but then make an exception and say "I know he wasn't going all out" you violate your own rule. On the other hand if you ignore the fact that a clearly superior runner did not DO it (yet) this season you risk looking foolish. Ain't an easy choice.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nI understand your point, but I don't think it has to be an "all or nothing" kind of approach.
\n
\nLet's take, for example, dual meets. They are part of the season for a great many teams around the nation. If a runner doesn't win there, but won a week before at a major invite against the same runners, should that runner be penalized in the rankings for not taking the dual meet seriously?
\n
\nNot all athletes (or teams) are going to take the same approach to the season. Some focus on one or two meets at the end of the year. Some focus on big mid-season showdowns. Some try to run their best every race, some train through meets. Some hold back and save themselves in certain races, some think they have to try to be Prefontaine every week.
\n
\nRanking individuals is tough because there are a whole lot of variables that should be considered. Obviously, head to head results is the biggest factor there because gauging how good winning individual performances is a whole different ballgame than gauging winning team performances (assuming the team in question doesn't sweep the meet).
\n
\nTo be clear on my position regarding the individual rankings for WA\/OR athletes: I think what happens head to head matters most, particularly at State and NXR\/NXN\/FLW\/FLN, HOWEVER I don't think BC is quite the same and doesn't necessarily say much about the runners (and therefore, shouldn't always be taken into consideration in rankings). Some runners do take the meet seriously, and I think it's perfectly fine to take those runner's performances into consideration, but I don't think other runners should be penalized for not taking the meet seriously when it doesn't fit into their plans for their season. The tricky part is usually trying to figure out who took the meet seriously and who didn't... if you have race video, splits, and\/or interviews to go off of, it's not hard to figure out as long as you have background knowledge to put things in perspective as well (which is why, when in doubt, I'd just discount BC results all together when talking about potential national champions).","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 5:12pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1179584":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179584","comment_id":"1179584","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>Bill Meylan, on , said:<\/p>

\nAlso agree ... But it got me to thinking (and doing some looking) ... How do we know Grant Fisher has not pushed it all season, or at least pushed it once??
\n
\nFisher did run the 3rd fastest time ever (14:52.5) at the Michigan State course which has been used since 1996 ... I can understand not over-extending yourself trying to break Dathan Ritzenhein's course record (14:10.4) since that mark is one of the premier performances in high school XC history ... I assume Fisher's 14:52.5 time took some effort, but I have no idea how much.
\n
\nI would make Grant Fisher the favorite in any high school XC race held tomorrow ... But I would not rank him above guys he has not beaten this season when those guys have turned in better XC performances .... I would give Grant Fisher the benefit-of-the-doubt in current ranking IF he was in the same position as Edward Cheserek as a HS senior ... As a junior, Cheserek turned in multiple XC performances at higher level than any of his senior-year competition ... That's not the case with Fisher ... I could understand ranking Fisher #1 right now if considering a combination of XC and track, but this is 2014 XC ranking.
\n
\nDefinitely looking forward to this weekend's NXN and Footlocker regional races ... Bowdoin Park is expecting 4-8 inches of snow from Wed-Thur!!
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nVery good point. That's one reason why I'm glad I don't do individual rankings: they are completely different than team rankings in that you usually don't know how much faster winners might or might not have been able to run, so ranking two runners that didn't race head to head is a MUCH harder thing to do.
\n
\nCan't wait to see what happens over the next few weekends, should be some great racing!","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 4:43pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1179580":{"pb_id":"3300","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179580","comment_id":"1179580","member_id":"3300","comment":"Posted Image
\n
\nThis was the Northwest Regional; they survived. We'll be fine at Bowdoin.
\n
\nAs far as the rankings go if you say that your rankings are a reflection of what the athlete has actually DONE this season but then make an exception and say "I know he wasn't going all out" you violate your own rule. On the other hand if you ignore the fact that a clearly superior runner did not DO it (yet) this season you risk looking foolish. Ain't an easy choice.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 4:38pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"Joe Lanzalotto","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=3300","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/Joe-Lanzalotto.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"7321"},"1179577":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179577","comment_id":"1179577","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>dkap, on , said:<\/p>

\nI hate to say it, but I think you're being inconsistent and losing your way in the analysis now. You just transitioned from it being a ranking of what they've done this year and not a prediction, to basically a prediction rationalizing away what they've done on the basis of what they're saving themselves for.
\n
\nDan
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nWhat do you mean?
\n
\nI expressed my opinion that BorderClash doesn't really say who the best runner in the NW is.
\nI then explained why I think Fisher's argument for #1 is significantly different than Dressel's (or Anderson's or Maton's).
\nI pointed out that we have one race where two of the three runners at BorderClash pushed themselves to their limits, and expressed my opinion that that is what should be considered in any individual rankings.
\nI then re-iterated my opinion that what was essentially a meaningless meet for at least 2 of the 3 shouldn't be the prime factor in rankings, as it didn't really say anything about who is better than who.
\nAnd, finally, I explained my take on what some of the top individuals in WA\/OR face in regards to BC and why they might place differing importance on the meet.
\n
\nNot all runners treat every race equally. I wouldn't expect ALL rankings to take every race equally (some will, obviously, but others won't - and that's ok! different takes on the same information isn't a bad thing).
\n
\nI don't see how I'm being inconsistent if I place more importance on some meets than others, or pointing out that there are multiple ways you can approach rankings.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 4:29pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1179576":{"pb_id":"43675","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179576","comment_id":"1179576","member_id":"43675","comment":"

<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p>

\nWhile I think Fisher has a good argument for #1, that is a different argument than what happened at BorderClash.
\n
\nFor Fisher, he's winning everything but not pushing it. So it is certainly understandable that he could be ranked #1 OR could be ranked behind the guys that have been more impressive this year. Makes sense either way.
\n
\nIn regards to Dressel's win at BorderClash? He beat two guys that specifically planned to not give it their best, and it was their understanding that he was going to do the same - in other words, he beat 2 guys that weren't really worried about who won on that day. However, we DO have a frame of reference for two of those three runners giving it their all: the Washington State meet was a great showdown between Anderson and Dressel, and BOTH gave it all they had.
\n
\nWhy would a race that wasn't really an all out race that two of the three didn't really care about matter more than a race between two of the three that WAS an all out race and did care about where we got to see how the runners really match up (in an actual race)?
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nAlso agree ... But it got me to thinking (and doing some looking) ... How do we know Grant Fisher has not pushed it all season, or at least pushed it once??
\n
\nFisher did run the 3rd fastest time ever (14:52.5) at the Michigan State course which has been used since 1996 ... I can understand not over-extending yourself trying to break Dathan Ritzenhein's course record (14:10.4) since that mark is one of the premier performances in high school XC history ... I assume Fisher's 14:52.5 time took some effort, but I have no idea how much.
\n
\nI would make Grant Fisher the favorite in any high school XC race held tomorrow ... But I would not rank him above guys he has not beaten this season when those guys have turned in better XC performances .... I would give Grant Fisher the benefit-of-the-doubt in current ranking IF he was in the same position as Edward Cheserek as a HS senior ... As a junior, Cheserek turned in multiple XC performances at higher level than any of his senior-year competition ... That's not the case with Fisher ... I could understand ranking Fisher #1 right now if considering a combination of XC and track, but this is 2014 XC ranking.
\n
\nDefinitely looking forward to this weekend's NXN and Footlocker regional races ... Bowdoin Park is expecting 4-8 inches of snow from Wed-Thur!!","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 4:21pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"Bill Meylan","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43675","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/Bill-Meylan.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1073444"},"1179575":{"pb_id":"9184","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179575","comment_id":"1179575","member_id":"9184","comment":"I hate to say it, but I think you're being inconsistent and losing your way in the analysis now. You just transitioned from it being a ranking of what they've done this year and not a prediction, to basically a prediction rationalizing away what they've done on the basis of what they're saving themselves for.
\n
\nDan","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 4:07pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"members\/avatar\/3295.jpg","pb_title":"dkap","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=9184","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/dkap.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"10044"},"1179572":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179572","comment_id":"1179572","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>cerutty fan, on , said:<\/p>

\nAgreed, but it tells me that Anderson and Maton don't mind losing if it means they can be buddy-buddy with their colleagues whereas Dressel is not OK with losing ever, just like Fisher. It doesn't tell me that Dressel is more fit than either Maton or Anderson, but it does tell me that Dressel and Fisher have a certain alpha-male characteristic that the other two don't. You can't instill that. We'll have to wait to see how that plays out at FL and in college.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nMaybe. I don't know how much you can really tell about an athlete just by how they treat an all star event. I do think it's possible that Dressel felt like he had more to prove, which is reason enough to go for the win. My only point, though, was that the results of this event probably shouldn't play that big of a role in the rankings, so it isn't very interesting (to me) to see what "rankings aftermath" might befall the runners that were involved.
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\nNow, the following here is only my take on some of the potential scenarios befitting the top WA\/OR guys and how they might view the event:
\n
\n
\n
\nQualifying for the race is the main achievement - it's recognition that you are among the top 40 (or so) runners in the state. To go along with that achievement, you get to visit Nike HQ, get some swag and run on a race at the Nike Campus with a very unique start and add to the state rivalry. For the guys eyeing national accolades, that's the real prize over the weekend.
\n
\nWinning BorderClash is obviously great, but if you're looking at running well at NXN or FLN, it might not really be that big of a priority:
\n
\nfor a WA runner going the NXN route, BorderClash would be the third (or fourth, if you pushed it at your state qualifying meet) all out race in as many weeks and you'll only have one week to rest before the season finale (NXN Nationals). I think most kids would like to win every race, but some probably prioritize one over the other - with that "one" generally being the national race rather than the state rivalry as that is the bigger stage and better field. That's definitely what you saw with Wilmot and Anderson last year (they didn't rush to the front, and didn't make their usual big mid-race moves but rather were content running mid-pack through the first half the race and then move up towards the front of the chase pack - ~20 seconds behind the leaders - during the latter part of the third km before letting loose a bit over the last half mile).
\n
\nfor an OR runner going the NXN route, you had a week rest in between state and NXR so it's not as big of a deal - it wouldn't be a total of 4 hard races in 5 weeks, but rather 4 in 6... still might not push it, but there are more that would than in Washington's case.
\n
\nfor a WA runner going the FLN route and skipping NXR, you already had a week's rest between state and this meet so you might be more apt to push it. That's what you saw with Dressel and probably Hardy last year (for those that don't remember, Dressel opened up a BIG lead early on, Maton reeled him mid-race and Hardy was a little off them, but those three were well clear of the rest of the pack).
\n
\nfor an OR runner going the FLN route and skipping NXR, you've had 2 weeks rest since state and another week off following this race, so unless you're training through the race you don't need to worry too much about holding back. That's what you saw with Maton last year.
\n
\nFor runners from either state that run NXR and plan to run FLW instead of NXN, that's yet another race thrown into the mix beyond the rest of the guys - all the more reason to not gun it at BC.
\n
\nFor the very top guys (like Maton, Anderson, Dressel, and last year Hardy and Wilmot), I think their eyes are on the national prize, not the BorderClash individual title. If they feel their ultimate goal is best served by not gunning it at BorderClash (which is what the NC guys have done pretty much every year), I think that's perfectly fine - they have bigger fish to fry.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 3:55pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1179566":{"pb_id":"50627","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179566","comment_id":"1179566","member_id":"50627","comment":"

<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p>

\nWhile I think Fisher has a good argument for #1, that is a different argument than what happened at BorderClash.
\n
\nFor Fisher, he's winning everything but not pushing it. So it is certainly understandable that he could be ranked #1 OR could be ranked behind the guys that have been more impressive this year. Makes sense either way.
\n
\nIn regards to Dressel's win at BorderClash? He beat two guys that specifically planned to not give it their best, and it was their understanding that he was going to do the same - in other words, he beat 2 guys that weren't really worried about who won on that day. However, we DO have a frame of reference for two of those three runners giving it their all: the Washington State meet was a great showdown between Anderson and Dressel, and BOTH gave it all they had.
\n
\nWhy would a race that wasn't really an all out race that two of the three didn't really care about matter more than a race between two of the three that WAS an all out race and did care about where we got to see how the runners really match up (in an actual race)?
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\n
\nAgreed, but it tells me that Anderson and Maton don't mind losing if it means they can be buddy-buddy with their colleagues whereas Dressel is not OK with losing ever, just like Fisher. It doesn't tell me that Dressel is more fit than either Maton or Anderson, but it does tell me that Dressel and Fisher have a certain alpha-male characteristic that the other two don't. You can't instill that. We'll have to wait to see how that plays out at FL and in college.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 3:35pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"cerutty fan","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=50627","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=50627","pb_wally_id":"1212787"},"1179561":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179561","comment_id":"1179561","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>dkap, on , said:<\/p>

\nCouldn't the same be said of Grant Fisher biding his time all season long? IMO, the precedent has been set: You have to rank people on the outcome of the races, not the reason for those outcomes.
\n
\nDan
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\n
\n
\nWhile I think Fisher has a good argument for #1, that is a different argument than what happened at BorderClash.
\n
\nFor Fisher, he's winning everything but not pushing it. So it is certainly understandable that he could be ranked #1 OR could be ranked behind the guys that have been more impressive this year. Makes sense either way.
\n
\nIn regards to Dressel's win at BorderClash? He beat two guys that specifically planned to not give it their best, and it was their understanding that he was going to do the same - in other words, he beat 2 guys that weren't really worried about who won on that day. However, we DO have a frame of reference for two of those three runners giving it their all: the Washington State meet was a great showdown between Anderson and Dressel, and BOTH gave it all they had.
\n
\nWhy would a race that wasn't really an all out race that two of the three didn't really care about matter more than a race between two of the three that WAS an all out race and did care about where we got to see how the runners really match up (in an actual race)?","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 2:48pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1179472":{"pb_id":"9184","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179472","comment_id":"1179472","member_id":"9184","comment":"

<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p>

\nI don't see why it would be that interesting to see rankings after a meet that 2 of the 3 obviously didn't care about - doesn't exactly say much about how good or deserving they are.
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\n
\nCouldn't the same be said of Grant Fisher biding his time all season long? IMO, the precedent has been set: You have to rank people on the outcome of the races, not the reason for those outcomes.
\n
\nDan","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 6:32am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"members\/avatar\/3295.jpg","pb_title":"dkap","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=9184","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/dkap.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"10044"},"1179467":{"pb_id":"5929","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179467","comment_id":"1179467","member_id":"5929","comment":"

<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p>

\nI don't see why it would be that interesting to see rankings after a meet that 2 of the 3 obviously didn't care about - doesn't exactly say much about how good or deserving they are.
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\n
\nI bet it would be interesting for Dressel :) Beat #1 and #2 in the country, is he still at #6?","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 5:36am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-5929.png","pb_title":"DrBob","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=5929","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/DrBobDP.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"2006"},"1179061":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1179061","comment_id":"1179061","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>DrBob, on , said:<\/p>

\nIt's probably good the next rankings aren't due out until after next weekend. Dressel's win over the higher ranked guy's and the line of reasoning would certainly make it interesting. After watching the race video, it was obvious that with less than 400 to go, it was going to be a walk across the line kind of effort but that quickly changed at some point as it should if we want the Clash to be taken seriously when it's a team oriented competition.
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\n
\nI don't see why it would be that interesting to see rankings after a meet that 2 of the 3 obviously didn't care about - doesn't exactly say much about how good or deserving they are.","date_added":"Nov 25th 2014, 1:40am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1178850":{"pb_id":"5929","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1178850","comment_id":"1178850","member_id":"5929","comment":"It's probably good the next rankings aren't due out until after next weekend. Dressel's win over the higher ranked guy's and the line of reasoning would certainly make it interesting. After watching the race video, it was obvious that with less than 400 to go, it was going to be a walk across the line kind of effort but that quickly changed at some point as it should if we want the Clash to be taken seriously when it's a team oriented competition.","date_added":"Nov 24th 2014, 1:56pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-5929.png","pb_title":"DrBob","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=5929","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/DrBobDP.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"2006"},"1177605":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1177605","comment_id":"1177605","member_id":"45158","comment":"

<\/a>DrBob, on , said:<\/p>

\nSo, if Grant is ranked 4th and there at least 3 other guys ahead of him, just how does he get beat? Is it early in the race, mid-race, or in a kick to the finish? Some would also say there's no reason for Fisher to throw down huge races until they omatter, thus helping his chances of actually getting a chance to prove his worth much like he has done since he burst onto the scene years ago and became the State Champion, Foot Locker Champion, Gatorade XC Runner of the Year, Dream Mile Champion and World Youth and Junior Qualifier.
\n
\nThe only thing Grant could have done differently is move :)
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\n
\nMaybe Tanner Anderson and\/or John Dressel should've moved out of Spokane and maybe the Pacific NW so they could've been undefeated ;)
\n
\nIt's just a ranking of 2014 xc accomplishments, Doug isn't saying that Fisher WILL be 4th (or 3rd at FL). You and I (and most people realize) that IF Footlocker comes down to a kick that Fisher will LIKELY win. But if somebody has just a bit more of a lead than Dressel had last year that could be all that is needed.","date_added":"Nov 23rd 2014, 8:10pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"1177601":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1177601","comment_id":"1177601","member_id":"45158","comment":"Don't people get it? THESE RANKINGS ON HERE AREN'T PREDICTIONS!!!
\n
\nDougB isn't saying if the top 100 runners race that he is positive that he knows the exact order of the top 30 ... heck, he isn't even saying that he believes he knows. In fact his top 30 order may likely go against everything he knows about running and everything his gut tells him.
\n
\nAll the top 30 represents is a list of good runners somewhat ranked in order of accomplishments they've done this year, especially most recently.
\n
\nMy list never agrees 100% with Doug and Rob but I GREATLY appreciate that they post theirs weekly for our entertainment and education. We learn some from them and I'm sure they also learn from our perspectives as well.","date_added":"Nov 23rd 2014, 7:58pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"1177555":{"pb_id":"5929","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1177555","comment_id":"1177555","member_id":"5929","comment":"So, if Grant is ranked 4th and there at least 3 other guys ahead of him, just how does he get beat? Is it early in the race, mid-race, or in a kick to the finish? Some would also say there's no reason for Fisher to throw down huge races until they matter, thus helping his chances of actually getting a chance to prove his worth much like he has done since he burst onto the scene years ago and became the State Champion, Foot Locker Champion, Gatorade XC Runner of the Year, Dream Mile Champion and World Youth and Junior Qualifier.
\n
\nThe only thing Grant could have done differently is move :)","date_added":"Nov 23rd 2014, 6:38pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-5929.png","pb_title":"DrBob","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=5929","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/DrBobDP.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"2006"},"1176840":{"pb_id":"9184","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1176840","comment_id":"1176840","member_id":"9184","comment":"It's similar to the team rankings, where Summit's boys are near the top despite the fact they won't have Maton for NXN. In both cases, the rank is based on what has been done so far this season, not what might happen once a few variables are changed. I personally feel you never discount a defending champ, but I also think both sides of the argument are equally valid and the rankings approach is consistent.
\n
\nDan","date_added":"Nov 22nd 2014, 8:23pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"members\/avatar\/3295.jpg","pb_title":"dkap","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=9184","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/dkap.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"10044"},"1176778":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"1","parent_id":"0","pid":"1176778","comment_id":"1176778","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>King999, on , said:<\/p>

\nBill, I have a great respect for what you guys do , but in this case this is a HUGE NO Way, No How, sorry.
\n
\nYou have a guy whp presumably beat guys of this level at least last year and is undefeated this year winning easily every race and he gets dropped? Sorry Speed ratings, any formulas, do not get to supercede competitive record and past performace, not yet anyway.
\n
\nIf he tanked at Regions? Maybe.
\n
\nBut, sorry, I could not agree with your logic ever on this, we would just have to disagree on this one.
\n
\nAnd I am not even saying he IS th best, ONLY that you cannot get dropped , after you won the title last year and have never lost or even close this year?
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\n
\n
\nI can definitely see both sides of the argument. Essentially, this is a +1 to Meylan's post, as I find little to disagree with his points (aside from maybe pointing out that Dressel is at least as fast as last year, since he mentioned the rest of the top FLN returners being faster as well). It's late in the 2014 season, there are other undefeated runners out there - all who are running well - and others who have been beaten but have still been running better than Fisher. IMO, there are 8 guys with legitimate cases for US#1 (Ostberg, Maton, Anderson, Fisher, Hacker, Hunter Tamagno and Reiser). Plus another (Mantz) if he returns to his mid-season form. That's not to say those guys are the top 8\/9 in the nation - guys like Dressel, Pollard, Millar, Brannigan, Roberts, Thomet, Alhamra, Khosla and maybe even a couple others can all challenge for a Top-5 finish.
\n
\nJust because Fisher won FLN last year, and hasn't faced anyone yet (or gone all-out yet) doesn't mean he HAS to be ranked US#1. He's never beaten Anderson, he barely beat Dressel at FLN, and he wasn't head and shoulders above everyone in track (though he was the best distance guy in track, just not by some absurd margin that the rest of the nation couldn't overcome with a better summer\/fall of training). COULD he be US#1? Of course - he's undefeated and won FLN last year. But others have done all they can to earn that US#1 spot as well, and you can't deny credit to them just because Fisher hasn't raced anyone.","date_added":"Nov 22nd 2014, 6:47pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"1176705":{"pb_id":"68733","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"1176705","comment_id":"1176705","member_id":"68733","comment":"Bill, I have a great respect for what you guys do , but in this case this is a HUGE NO Way, No How, sorry.
\n
\nYou have a guy whp presumably beat guys of this level at least last year and is undefeated this year winning easily every race and he gets dropped? Sorry Speed ratings, any formulas, do not get to supercede competitive record and past performace, not yet anyway.
\n
\nIf he tanked at Regions? Maybe.
\n
\nBut, sorry, I could not agree with your logic ever on this, we would just have to disagree on this one.
\n
\nAnd I am not even saying he IS th best, ONLY that you cannot get dropped , after you won the title last year and have never lost or even close this year?","date_added":"Nov 22nd 2014, 5:30pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":301132,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"King999","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=68733","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/King999.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1493915"}},"last_id":"1176705","url":"comments.php?item_type=news&item_id=301132&item_url=profile.php?member_id=42240"}