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Keller's #5 is what's going to hurt them at state. Could very well finish a poor race if even worse one runner runs a subpar race (lack of depth). Still, I think their chances will be hurt by how far back their #5 is.
I see Southlake Carroll finishing ahead of Keller, but behind Kingwood.
So in my opinion:
#1 Marcus (or Kingwood)
#2 Kingwood (or Marcus)
#3 Southlake Carroll
#4 Keller
I think Kingwood could pull out a surprise, though.