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waveown commented on a news article Dec 9th 2022, 2:05am
You have 10 teams from the Southwest ranked in the top 30. The three teams from SW at NXN went 2, 4, and 7. Too bad they didn't get another at-large bid. They deserved it. The SW is a region of death.
Saratoga Springs of New York Stands Tall Once More Against Elite National Field in Oregon, Remaining Country's Best Program By Erik Boal, DyeStat Editor ...
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2 comment(s)
Comber16
Waveown, the SW is solid... but in 2023, there will be 5 NXN-worthy teams from California with some big transfers to teams that were already outstanding. Buchanan, J Serra, Ventura, and Oaks Christian will be strong, and there will be one big surprise school that will sneak into the top 4 in the state. 2023 is going to be VERY exciting in girls XC, especially in the West.
waveown
You have 10 teams from the Southwest ranked in the top 30. The three teams from SW at NXN went 2, 4, and 7. Too bad they didn't get another at-large bid. They deserved it. The SW is a region of death.
 
waveown commented on a news article Oct 3rd 2014, 7:44pm
Rob, I really like the way you do rankings... looking at the season as a whole instead of one particular matchup.

I'm an assistant coach in Utah. I love seeing so many teams from such a small state in your rankings. I hope they can keep it up! I do think we have an unfair advantage in the rankings at this point. We're further along in our season than the majority of the country. For example, our team only has our region and state races left. I would think most Utah teams are getting close to their peak. Just a theory...

Regardless, I hope Utah continues to show well.
No. 1 American Fork getting sharp in Utah by Rob Monroe ...
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90 comment(s)
King999
Indeed..

Many agree , but , but after FM domination in 2004, I believe it was and getting beat at Nationals? I think, many have downplayed the 2.5 time tested Vanny results

Not me, this is all time stuff no matter where it was or the distance
GeorgieTheK

King999, on , said:

I rarely use team times OR even 5 man avgs to look at a race

They get too skewed by one guy possibly, which happened today

The issue here today was that this was a very fast race 20 under 12:45 35 under 13:00, when you pick up scoring at second with 47th you have no chance, in this type of field.



I'm just getting to the results after being in the mountains all weekend.


To borrow a kingism - FM a horror show. Seriously.

Are we not talking about this? I know the race was fast, etc. But they had their #2 guy at 12:21, and 4 guys under 12:40.

I think CBA ran really poorly, as poorly as they have run in the past 10 years. In fact, the last time they had a team that was good enough to run well and didn't was...at Manhattan in 2004 when they got waxed by FM. But even on their best day they don't come close to FM.

FM's performance might be the best HS team performance ever. Top guy who is legitimately one of the best 5-10 guys in the country (if not better), with 3 other guys within 30 secs of him.

Scary stuff. Kudos to them.
cerutty fan

watchout, on , said:

So... they scored essentially the same amount of points as a pair of US#15-30 ranked teams and not far off a US Top-5 team, while some of their runners had clearly bad days (their #3 and #4 ran as their #7 and #6 in the championship race, and two of their 'B' team runners ran faster than they did as well), and you think that means that, despite running well and winning Nike South last week clearly showing they are either #1 or #2 in Texas and #2 or #3 in the South, and what that all means is they should drop back to #29-34 (behind teams they beat last week)?

Come on.

EDIT: Let's take a closer look at this, because it's a great example of how the snapshot of a single race can show something different than what the actual results over the course of the season has shown.

On the left is the rank within their team (including a quick estimate of the race today) and on the right is how they ran (all were in the championship race).

Claremont -
#1/2 Adam Johnson = #31 (15:48.25)
#1/2 Mike Lowrie = #19 (15:38.09)
#3 Jonah Ross = #16 (15:36.51)
#4 Dylan Powers = #45 (16:00.61)
#5/6 Tom Englebert = #67 (16:16.26)
#5/6 Jonah Evans = #76 (16:20.17)
#7 Tab Backman = #119 (16:40.69)

Canyon -
#1 Wesley Walsh = #5 (15:23.32)
#2 Chance Lamberth = #8 (15:26.76)
#3/4 Ryan Thompson = #40 (15:57.29)
#3/4 Dylan Scarsone = #28 (15:46.41)
#5/6 Dalton Tanner = #94 (16:27.45)
#5/6 Travis Gradijan = #95 (16:28.07)
#7 Omar Ledezma = #151 (17:04.28)

Southlake Carroll -
#1 Eli Canal = #22 (15:43.60)
#2 Reed Brown = #18 (15:37.60)
#3 Timou Toure = #103 (16:32.21)
#4/5 Ansel Richards = #70 (16:18.02)
#4/5 Shea Whatley = #42 (15:58.60)
#6 Charles Gardner = #43 (15:59.18)
#7 Johnny Kemps = #60 (16:11.76)



So, Southlake Carroll's #5/6 guys (though not on this day) beat Claremont's #4, and Southlake Carroll's #1-2 punch (both today and their usual runners) beat Claremont's #1-2 punch.

Meanwhile, Southlake Carroll's #5/6 guys (though not on this day) were far ahead of Canyon's #5; their #5 on the day was STILL almost 10 seconds ahead of Canyon's, and their #4's were very similar (though Canyon had the better day up front).

Despite the fact that the only reason Canyon (175) and Claremont (178) scored less points than Southlake Carroll (185) was because of the makeup of the Championship race's field, the fact that Southlake Carroll had a more significant trek to get to the meet, were coming off a big win the week before, and had a worse day when looking at "who ran what" vs. "who should have run what", you believe all that is irrelevant because Canyon scored 175 points, Claremont scored 178 points, and Southlake Carroll scored 185 in the championship race.


That's correct. As they say, "scoreboard".
watchout

cerutty fan, on , said:

I would still say they should drop at least 10-15 spots to 29-34 range. I wouldn't rank them based on a "merged" score using runners that raced in less competitive races and therefore had less traffic to negotiate given where they finished. Their boys that ran 16:02 (10th place in DI) and 16:09 (14th in DI) wouldn't necessarily have run faster than their 5th runner (16:11 for 69th) did in the Championship race.

In this case the merged scored definitely does not take precedence over the actual race score. If they had one or two kids run 30-40 seconds faster in the DI race then that would be different.


So... they scored essentially the same amount of points as a pair of US#15-30 ranked teams and not far off a US Top-5 team, while some of their runners had clearly bad days (their #3 and #4 ran as their #7 and #6 in the championship race, and two of their 'B' team runners ran faster than they did as well), and you think that means that, despite running well and winning Nike South last week clearly showing they are either #1 or #2 in Texas and #2 or #3 in the South, and what that all means is they should drop back to #29-34 (behind teams they beat last week)?

Come on.

EDIT: Let's take a closer look at this, because it's a great example of how the snapshot of a single race can show something different than what the actual results over the course of the season has shown.

On the left is the rank within their team (including a quick estimate of the race today) and on the right is how they ran (all were in the championship race).

Claremont -
#1/2 Adam Johnson = #31 (15:48.25)
#1/2 Mike Lowrie = #19 (15:38.09)
#3 Jonah Ross = #16 (15:36.51)
#4 Dylan Powers = #45 (16:00.61)
#5/6 Tom Englebert = #67 (16:16.26)
#5/6 Jonah Evans = #76 (16:20.17)
#7 Tab Backman = #119 (16:40.69)

Canyon -
#1 Wesley Walsh = #5 (15:23.32)
#2 Chance Lamberth = #8 (15:26.76)
#3/4 Ryan Thompson = #40 (15:57.29)
#3/4 Dylan Scarsone = #28 (15:46.41)
#5/6 Dalton Tanner = #94 (16:27.45)
#5/6 Travis Gradijan = #95 (16:28.07)
#7 Omar Ledezma = #151 (17:04.28)

Southlake Carroll -
#1 Eli Canal = #22 (15:43.60)
#2 Reed Brown = #18 (15:37.60)
#3 Timou Toure = #103 (16:32.21)
#4/5 Ansel Richards = #70 (16:18.02)
#4/5 Shea Whatley = #42 (15:58.60)
#6 Charles Gardner = #43 (15:59.18)
#7 Johnny Kemps = #60 (16:11.76)



So, Southlake Carroll's #5/6 guys (though not on this day) beat Claremont's #4, and Southlake Carroll's #1-2 punch (both today and their usual runners) beat Claremont's #1-2 punch.

Meanwhile, Southlake Carroll's #5/6 guys (though not on this day) were far ahead of Canyon's #5; their #5 on the day was STILL almost 10 seconds ahead of Canyon's, and their #4's were very similar (though Canyon had the better day up front).

Despite the fact that the only reason Canyon (175) and Claremont (178) scored less points than Southlake Carroll (185) was because of the makeup of the Championship race's field, the fact that Southlake Carroll had a more significant trek to get to the meet, were coming off a big win the week before, and had a worse day when looking at "who ran what" vs. "who should have run what", you believe all that is irrelevant because Canyon scored 175 points, Claremont scored 178 points, and Southlake Carroll scored 185 in the championship race.
cerutty fan

watchout, on , said:

Now that all the races at Clovis are done, Southlake Carroll ends up #2 in the full merge. Anyone still think they should drop out of the top 30?

EDIT: Power merge scores =

  • 140 - Great Oak - 78:37.79 (US#4)
  • 187 - Southlake Carroll - 79:21.06 (US#19)
  • 189 - Canyon (Anaheim) - 79:01.23 (was on the bubble, which means US Top-55)
  • 195 - Claremont - 79:19.72 (US#28)
  • 202 - Madera South - 79:12.96 (US#16)
  • 242 - Westview - 79:39.41
  • 249 - King - 79:59.32
  • 278 - McQueen - 80:04.66 (unranked but was US#41 if I listed beyond 40)
  • 282 - Clovis North - 80:09.45 (was on the bubble, which means US Top-55)
  • 293 - California (Whitter) - 80:19.71
  • 300 - Beaumont - 80:22.16
  • 319 - De La Salle - 80:34.44
  • 321 - Central Catholic - 80:41.33 (US#13)
  • 337 - Agoura - 80:49.45
  • 347 - Ventura - 80:52.97
  • 347 - St John Bosco - 81:00.08
  • 349 - Clovis - 80:51.90
  • 356 - Paso Robles - 81:06.23
  • 360 - Davis - 81:06.57
  • 362 - Arcadia - 80:47.82
  • 383 - Quartz Hill - 81:16.12
  • 383 - Jesuit - 81:10.10


...


I would still say they should drop at least 10-15 spots to 29-34 range. I wouldn't rank them based on a "merged" score using runners that raced in less competitive races and therefore had less traffic to negotiate given where they finished. Their boys that ran 16:02 (10th place in DI) and 16:09 (14th in DI) wouldn't necessarily have run faster than their 5th runner (16:11 for 69th) did in the Championship race.

In this case the merged scored definitely does not take precedence over the actual race score. If they had one or two kids run 30-40 seconds faster in the DI race then that would be different.
watchout
Now that all the races at Clovis are done, Southlake Carroll ends up #2 in the full merge. Anyone still think they should drop out of the top 30?

EDIT: Power merge scores =

  • 140 - Great Oak - 78:37.79 (US#4)
  • 187 - Southlake Carroll - 79:21.06 (US#19)
  • 189 - Canyon (Anaheim) - 79:01.23 (was on the bubble, which means US Top-55)
  • 195 - Claremont - 79:19.72 (US#28)
  • 202 - Madera South - 79:12.96 (US#16)
  • 242 - Westview - 79:39.41
  • 249 - King - 79:59.32
  • 278 - McQueen - 80:04.66 (unranked but was US#41 if I listed beyond 40)
  • 282 - Clovis North - 80:09.45 (was on the bubble, which means US Top-55)
  • 293 - California (Whitter) - 80:19.71
  • 300 - Beaumont - 80:22.16
  • 319 - De La Salle - 80:34.44
  • 321 - Central Catholic - 80:41.33 (US#13)
  • 337 - Agoura - 80:49.45
  • 347 - Ventura - 80:52.97
  • 347 - St John Bosco - 81:00.08
  • 349 - Clovis - 80:51.90
  • 356 - Paso Robles - 81:06.23
  • 360 - Davis - 81:06.57
  • 362 - Arcadia - 80:47.82
  • 383 - Quartz Hill - 81:16.12
  • 383 - Jesuit - 81:10.10


...
Joe Lanzalotto

watchout, on , said:

No doubt, that's a very good trio of NY teams.

It's worth putting into perspective: CBA's team time was pretty similar to what they ran in 2011, when they edged Southlake Carroll 91-95 to win NXN.

A ~13:00 average isn't world-beating anymore, but it's still a very solid mid-season mark en route to bigger meets later in the season.


Yes, true and I think they do know this is not the time of year that you HAVE to beat the world but I would bet anything they're not happy with this result.

EDIT: and on another front, Briana Gess won the girls B race by 25+ seconds, in the third fastest time of the day. She was 5 seconds behind wunderkind Kelati who ran in the Easterns race with PLENTY of competition. Gess should be ranked much higher.

I guess she has now done something!!! :-)
watchout

King999, on , said:

I rarely use team times OR even 5 man avgs to look at a race

They get too skewed by one guy possibly, which happened today

The issue here today was that this was a very fast race 20 under 12:45 35 under 13:00, when you pick up scoring at second with 47th you have no chance, in this type of field.


I was trying to put a positive spin on their race; my apologies.

Perhaps looking at the NY trio would be better then:

#3 St. Anthony's times were better almost across the board than CBA's times that year (only spot that St. A's didn't have the edge was #3, where they ran 12:59.3 to CBA 2011's 12:58.2). The NY teams that beat CBA are all very very good.
King999
I rarely use team times OR even 5 man avgs to look at a race

They get too skewed by one guy possibly, which happened today

The issue here today was that this was a very fast race 20 under 12:45 35 under 13:00, when you pick up scoring at second with 47th you have no chance, in this type of field.
watchout
No doubt, that's a very good trio of NY teams.

It's worth putting into perspective: CBA's team time was pretty similar to what they ran in 2011, when they edged Southlake Carroll 91-95 to win NXN.

A ~13:00 average isn't world-beating anymore, but it's still a very solid mid-season mark en route to bigger meets later in the season.
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waveown liked a news article Sep 24th 2014, 10:45pm
Top-flight elite races set for Bob Firman Invite   ...
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waveown commented on a news article Sep 1st 2014, 8:52pm
Rob, you have 4 girls teams from the Southwest ranked in the top 14 nationally. The Southwest girls showed extremely well at NXN last year taking 3rd, 5th, and 6th. Is it even a possibility that Nike would take two at-large teams from the same conference? Obviously, there's a lot of racing ahead of us...
Preseason Southwest Region Top 5   ...
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2 comment(s)
watchout
Possible, but not likely. Lots of strong teams out there. If results matched rankings exactly (as in, SW#4 Davis ended up looking VERY SLIGHTLY better than NY#3 Elmira and MW#3 Birmingham Seaholm MI and NE#3 Coe-Brown NH), I'd bet good money that one of the #3 regional finishers would get the nod -- cross-region comparisons are never 100% foolproof, and a third place regional finish is better than a fourth. However, if SW#4 looked like a potential Top-5/10 finisher and the fourth best #3 regional finisher looked like they might not be a potential Top 15 finisher, then absolutely the SW could net a second at-large team.
waveown
Rob, you have 4 girls teams from the Southwest ranked in the top 14 nationally. The Southwest girls showed extremely well at NXN last year taking 3rd, 5th, and 6th. Is it even a possibility that Nike would take two at-large teams from the same conference? Obviously, there's a lot of racing ahead of us...
 
Ian Terpin posted a comment Feb 17th 2014, 9:27pm
Girls 800 Section 3 is fixed:
http://simplot-games...video_id=104533
1 comment(s)
Ian Terpin
Thank you for calling that to my attention
 
waveown commented on a news article Feb 16th 2014, 6:59pm
They're now up!
Ricky Faure broke Luke Puskedra's 1600 meter record by .36 seconds
Cream rises to the top out West at Simplot   ...
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2 comment(s)
waveown
They're now up!
Ricky Faure broke Luke Puskedra's 1600 meter record by .36 seconds
waveown
The results don't include the boys 1600 m final for some reason...
Ricky Faure set a meet record with a 4:10.something
 
waveown liked a photo Dec 7th 2013, 1:09am
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waveown liked a photo Dec 7th 2013, 1:02am
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