Upload a Photo Upload a Video Add a News article Write a Blog Add a Comment
Blog Feed News Feed Video Feed All Feeds

Promos

 

featured feed

 

Wall - 302 followers

Post to:  
Post as: 
 
RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Yesterday, 01:56 PM
By Doug Binder, DyeStat Editor ...
Published by:
 
 
Post as: 
 
RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a video - Yesterday, 03:13 AM
RunnerSpace Live brings you the rundown on what happened this week in the world of running.HIGH SCHOOL-Manhattan Invitational in NY-Clovis Invitational in CA-George Fox XC Classic in OR-Amboy Invitational in IL-Richland Invite in WA-Top individual p...
Published by:
 
 
Post as: 
 
RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a video - Oct 18 2014, 09:42 PM
2014 CIF-SS Southwestern League Cluster Meet 2
Published by:
 
 
Post as: 
 
RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a video - Oct 18 2014, 04:37 PM
Highlights of the Boys Varsity Race at the DuPage Valley Conference Meet - Camera Park, Glendale Heights IL - October 17, 2014
Published by:
 
 
Post as: 
 
RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Oct 18 2014, 02:40 PM
Naperville North wins Girls title on 6th runner tiebreaker over Naperville Central; Jon Klaiber and Rachel Hoffman take home individual titles   ...
Published by:
 
 
Post as: 
 
RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Oct 17 2014, 10:53 PM
F-M draws near but Great Oak holds on to No. 1 by Rob Monroe ...
Published by:
 
 
Post as: 
4 comment(s)  
DougB
Alexa was was at the George Fox meet last weekend. She ran a workout and then watched her friends from Camas. She obviously still has strong tie to those girls, and is friends with them, but she does not regret her decision to turn pro. I had the same question. But really, she's at peace with moving on.
watchout

DontStopPre, on , said:

How surprising is Camas' success? And how good would they be with Efraimson (rhetorical question ... unless you've already figured it out)? I wonder if Efraimson has any regrets quitting her HS team (again rhetorical ... obviously she figured quitting was the best for her individual success but as it's often said, "high school sports is a memory that lasts a lifetime". Especially when the team is nationally ranked!


Going into the season, before I knew for sure whether Efraimson was going to go pro immediately or maybe wait until track season, I thought that Camas had a real chance to be the far-and-away NW#1 and a bonafide US Top 10 team with a good chance at a trophy finish. I knew they had some good freshmen coming in, but didn't know that they would all pan out (as eighth graders Jenkins ran 2:25.3/5:16.1 last year in track and 8:58 at the 1.5 mile Harmony Sports Complex - the GSHL middle school XC championship course, Wilson ran 2:23.89/5:19.1 and 8:58 as well, and Merritt 5:25.8 but only 9:17 in XC ... for comparison, Efraimson ran 8:44 but more telling is that Alexis Fuller ran 8:38). Keep in mind, though, that Efraimson isn't the only one Camas lost - their #3 returner, Marley LeFore, also didn't turn out this year. So the varsity team they have actually been running with is really what would have been their #2 and #4-9.

Camas should be even better next year, especially if LeFore returns: they graduate Pudlitzke, but an eighth grader at Skyridge MS (Efraimson's former MS) has already broken the course record by 22 seconds, running 8:16 last week! I understand at least one other Camas girl is training under Hickey right now, not sure if it is that 8th grader, LeFore or one of this year's freshmen...

In better review of how close they are to what I expected... I figured they would be a little behind Desert Vista even with LeFore and Efraimson on the team. If you look at the NPN results and give "average" races for their two runners that had significantly off days (Merritt and Woodson), and plus Efraimson in at #1, they score about 100 points (14 points ahead of what DV actually scored, though they didn't run a perfect race either and it would have been close). But add in LeFore and all of the sudden Camas would be up with Great Oak, the US#1 team.

So, yes, I expected Camas to be very good this year had everyone ran, however their freshmen have been even better than I thought they would be. Because of the early success of their freshmen, they would have been serious NXN Title contenders rather than the US Top-10 and probable Trophy contenders I had expected them to be. They aren't the biggest surprise in the NW for me, though - Issaquah wasn't even on my radar pre-season, but their freshmen crew have made them instantly competitive for the 4A State title and a shot at NXN.
DontStopPre
How surprising is Camas' success? And how good would they be with Efraimson (rhetorical question ... unless you've already figured it out)? I wonder if Efraimson has any regrets quitting her HS team (again rhetorical ... obviously she figured quitting was the best for her individual success but as it's often said, "high school sports is a memory that lasts a lifetime". Especially when the team is nationally ranked!
watchout
Girls Teams on the Bubble:
(alphabetical order by region)

California (3): Campolindo, Palos Verdes, Serrano
Heartland (1): Willmar MN
Midwest (1): Minooka IL
New York (1): Corning
Northeast (0)
Northwest (3): Bozeman MT, Issaquah WA, Sunset OR
South (1): Lewisville Marcus TX
Southeast (1): Walter Johnson MD
Southwest (1): Rio Rancho NM

How far off the national rankings are they? Well, let's just say that the back end of the top 40 would be projected to score around 280-285 at a meet like NXN in previous years (on a good day), while the teams on the bubble would be projected to score under 310.
 
RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Oct 17 2014, 10:53 PM
American Fork heads into UT state meet No. 1 by Rob Monroe ...
Published by:
 
 
Post as: 
25 comment(s)  
watchout

Seaverfan, on , said:

Sorry I didn't reply to your comment on the Utah states sooner Rob. I can't get on from my home computer, only from work.

If AF thrashes the #3 and #6 teams at states (although apparently it would be an indirect thrashing on one of them) then I would agree that AF could move back ahead of F-M in the NEXT ranking.

You fail to acknowledge the difference between a rating and a ranking.
A rating can and should take all information available and acts more as a predictive tool.
A ranking should acknowledge the snapshot of where a team is at a particular moment in the season and shouldn't serve as a predictive tool.

If you want to rate AF as #1 right now, I can't argue -- it's your rating system.

But if you want to RANK them as #1 BEFORE Wednesday -- sorry you're just wrong.

Right now F-M has performed better than AF and P.S. right now Cherry Hill East has performed better than Don Bosco and should be ranked higher although still might rate lower.

Either way I appreciate your hard and exhaustive work. I just think there's a difference that you don't seem to acknowledge.

And yes I think head to head trumps any rating or ranking. As Bill Parcells once said, you are what your record says you are.


AF is RANKED #1 because they have (IMO) run better than FM, and NOT because I think they will run better (although I do think there's a good chance they will continue to run better, since it's not like FM isn't running great).

You say that I could "rate" but not "rank" American Fork as #1 - WHY? Is it because they haven't run at VCP, or is it because they haven't raced a Top-10 ranked team?

BTW, did you know that AF beat CBA in 2012 (running 11 seconds/man faster), when CBA was just as fast at VCP as they were last year? And did you know that AF ran 15 seconds per man faster this year than their 2012 team did at their region meet (both @ AF)? Yes, I can play that "look at what they did in previous years" game as well.

FM isn't ranked behind AF based only on the strength of what FM has done, but rather because of what both AF and FM have done. BOTH have been extremely impressive this year, both are very strong programs, both returned great teams from last year, and both are undefeated this year. I don't see any reason (aside from regional bias, I suppose) as to why one team HAS to be ranked ahead of the other - they BOTH have done something to earn the top spot, I just give AF a slight edge so far.
Seaverfan
Sorry I didn't reply to your comment on the Utah states sooner Rob. I can't get on from my home computer, only from work.

If AF thrashes the #3 and #6 teams at states (although apparently it would be an indirect thrashing on one of them) then I would agree that AF could move back ahead of F-M in the NEXT ranking.

You fail to acknowledge the difference between a rating and a ranking.
A rating can and should take all information available and acts more as a predictive tool.
A ranking should acknowledge the snapshot of where a team is at a particular moment in the season and shouldn't serve as a predictive tool.

If you want to rate AF as #1 right now, I can't argue -- it's your rating system.

But if you want to RANK them as #1 BEFORE Wednesday -- sorry you're just wrong.

Right now F-M has performed better than AF and P.S. right now Cherry Hill East has performed better than Don Bosco and should be ranked higher although still might rate lower.

Either way I appreciate your hard and exhaustive work. I just think there's a difference that you don't seem to acknowledge.

And yes I think head to head trumps any rating or ranking. As Bill Parcells once said, you are what your record says you are.
watchout

billatc, on , said:

Marietta ran very well - keeping a tight group despite it being a slow course - that might have been Friedman's best race this year - based on my experience running in NJ in HS and coaching here in Ga - its likely +/- 5 sec's from Holmdel on an average day (with it more likely on the slower side). If they continue to improve, Marietta will def be a threat to move on to NXN. Their biggest advantage is inter-changeable parts as they have had 7 people all run in the top 5 at one point or another and do so with no real drop off.

Quick question,- surprised that Cherry Hill East is not getting more consideration despite beating Bosco handily in NYC. I am guessing its a lack of quality performances behind that as well as a 4/5 that is a bit too gapped from their 3rd runner. Will be interesting to see if the lack of racing will work to their advantage at the end of the season.


Yeah, I have Coach Woods being ~8 seconds slower than Holmdel. Good to see we are pretty much in agreement.

And yes, you nailed it in regards to Cherry Hill East as well.
billatc
Marietta ran very well - keeping a tight group despite it being a slow course - that might have been Friedman's best race this year - based on my experience running in NJ in HS and coaching here in Ga - its likely +/- 5 sec's from Holmdel on an average day (with it more likely on the slower side). If they continue to improve, Marietta will def be a threat to move on to NXN. Their biggest advantage is inter-changeable parts as they have had 7 people all run in the top 5 at one point or another and do so with no real drop off.

Quick question,- surprised that Cherry Hill East is not getting more consideration despite beating Bosco handily in NYC. I am guessing its a lack of quality performances behind that as well as a 4/5 that is a bit too gapped from their 3rd runner. Will be interesting to see if the lack of racing will work to their advantage at the end of the season.
watchout
Marietta dominated at Coach Woods today - winning with 51 points against the best in Georgia; notable St. Pius X was runner-up with 151.
watchout

Seaverfan, on , said:

My mistake -- old course record was in 2012 when NXN was held in a mudbath where no one broke 17. CBA had won in 2011.

No matter -- Last year's results are still a non sequitor. Once American Fork leaves UT (they haven't raced outside of the state as far as I know) then we can find out how good they are. F-M thrashed, thrashed FOUR teams in the current top 10.

F-M right now is clearly #1 in the nation.


And the closest team anyone has been to AF was the 24-87 margin back to US#28 Desert Hills at Nebo - they've thrashed everyone they've raced to date.

You are right, FM has beaten more elite teams so far this year. AF's big chance is next Wednesday at Utah State, where they race US#3 Davis for the first time this year, and have US#6 Timpanogos racing in a different classification as well. I'm sure we can agree that IF beating highly ranked teams means as much as your post suggests, AF beating 2 other Top 6 teams including the #3 team is just as impressive if not more impressive than beating 3 other teams in the top 9 with the closest team ranked US#5.
watchout

Seaverfan, on , said:

Agree 1000%

What Gig Harbor did to CBA last year is a non sequitor since the CBA record was not set last year but was set the year CBA went on to win the National championships.

Fortunately it will come out in the wash (or now on the golf course) but for F-M not to be ranked #1 now under Any Set of circumstances is silly (Unless American Fork just demolished a course record on the Northwest's oldest and most raced course).

Paul Schwartz


I absolutely agree, it doesn't matter what Gig Harbor did to CBA last year. What matters is how good AF is this year, and how good FM is this year, and simple measures such as team times on Course A gives an incomplete and flawed look at how good a team has been this year.
watchout

GeorgieTheK, on , said:

Not everyone has run at ANY course in the nation. EVERY course in high school XC is a regional course, with the exception of Portland Meadows, which was a total crap shoot.

Who the hell runs at Nebo? Or Westlake?

If this is your logic, then the rankings are a farce.


I never said that any course has ever had any team ever compete on it. Point to where I did? I said that running a course record on Course X only shows how that team (roughly) compares to teams from years past that have run on that course (and only on that day).

GeorgieTheK, on , said:

More great teams have run at Manhattan over the years than any course which AF has run at.

Take a look at the performances by FM this year. Not just Manhattan - which was the greatest race by a hs team ever. But all the other ones have results which show them to be as good as the top teams in every year going back for the past 10-15 years.


I have. Have you taken a look at all of the performances by AF this year? BOTH teams look to be as good as national champions from years past.

GeorgieTheK, on , said:

As king mentioned, they destroyed a CR set by CBA last year - a team beaten only by Gig Harbor - and most observers would classify those two teams last year as two of the best teams ever in high school history. FM at Manhattan didn't edge the performance, they didn't beat it by a good margin, they crushed it.


Point to where I ever said otherwise.

GeorgieTheK, on , said:

FM was 4th last year at NXN, and returned 6 of 7. It's not like they are a team that came out of the blue. I don't really know what it would take for FM to be #1.


I realize that FM didn't come "out of the blue"; most of the summer, I had figured that they were going to be my preseason US#1. It's not like American Fork has come out of the blue either - they have been one of the 3 most successful teams at NXN over the last 7 years, behind only North Central WA and Arcadia CA. Last year, they finished a whole 14 points behind FM, and though they graduated more varsity runners they reloaded from a very strong JV group.

Both programs have been very good. Both programs are running incredible this year. I haven't - and wouldn't - disagree with any of your points that FM is looking like one of the best teams ever; the rankings aren't about how good FM is, it's about how FM compares to AF - which is also looking like one of the best teams ever.
watchout

King999, on , said:

I have no idea how a team that breaks a 45 meaningful tiem tested years' 5 man avg by a GREAT team by 12 secs per guy cannot be U.S. #1


Because, as I said, that is only a tool to describe how the team compares to other teams that have run on that course. It says nothing (by itself) about how that team compares to teams from the rest of the nation, that has never run on the course.

King999, on , said:

Using aggregate times and comparing them across venues and conditions is a really challenging method to use


Absolutely. That's why I don't use aggregate times and compare them across venues when doing my rankings.

King999, on , said:

It's the eye test, CBA was second at NXN and ran 12:44, FM didn;t just nip that, they thrashed that


Yes, it was a great race. I never said otherwise.

King999, on , said:

The methodology of comparing teams from different years, different days, different conditions, Is flawed unless the performance is completely on its' own, dominating and earth shattering, that is what FM just did


Absolutely agree that comparing teams from different years, days, and conditions is flawed. That's one of the many reasons why I don't look at single team performances as the base my rankings.
Seaverfan
My mistake -- old course record was in 2012 when NXN was held in a mudbath where no one broke 17. CBA had won in 2011.

No matter -- Last year's results are still a non sequitor. Once American Fork leaves UT (they haven't raced outside of the state as far as I know) then we can find out how good they are. F-M thrashed, thrashed FOUR teams in the current top 10.

F-M right now is clearly #1 in the nation.
View More
 
RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Oct 17 2014, 03:54 PM
By Michael Newman mike@dyestat.com ...
Published by:
 
 
Post as: 
1 comment(s)  
Eric Ponzetti
What about the Central Suburban League meet, Mike?
 
RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool featured a news article - Oct 17 2014, 11:25 AM
Now that Pre State is in the books, discussion of Florida high school cross country can become evidence-based, which is one of my favorite things about Pre State. You can say goodbye to conversations like this:   ...
Published by:
 
 
Post as: 
View More
 

History

History for RunnerSpace.com/HighSchool
YearVideosNewsPhotosBlogs
2014 3411 10278 4620 9
2013 5923 11107 9910 7
2012 3653 6559 12968 1
2011 1240 1320 2430 8
2010 1753 1131 1462 3
2009 575 684 1683 36
2008 65 151 101 51
2007 1 17    
2006   12    
2005   8    
2004   9    
2003 32 8    
2002   8    
2001 209 9    
2000 533 13    
1999   2    
1994 1      
1991 1      
1984 1      
1983 1      
1982 1      
1972 1      
1971 1      
1970 1      
1969 1      
1965 1      
1962 1      
1954 1      
 

Followers (302)

 
 

RunnerSpace +plus

 

Advert

 

RunTheLoop

 

Track Talk

 
 All HS Elite Track Talk >  
 

Social

Instagram
 

Links

Rankings
Dyestat US #1's 
XC - In - Out


National Meets

Outdoor

New Balance Nationals Outdoors
USA Junior Nationals
World Youth Trials
USATF National Junior Olympics
AAU Junior Olympics

Indoor
New Balance Nationals Indoors
AAU Indoor National Championships
USATF Youth Indoor Champs

Cross Country
Nike Cross Nationals
AAU XC Championships
USATF National Junior Olympic XC Championships
Foot Locker Cross Country Championships


USA State Championship Meets