NY 1s: East Aurora boys, Saratoga Springs girls

The New York Boys

By Paul Schmitz

New York, one of the perennial power regions at NXN, is a mess to predict this year.  Coming off of a dominant year where they placed three in the top eight in the country (FM #1, Liverpool #4 St. Anthony #8), this region lost more top runners than any region in the country coming into 2015.  This shake-up is an opportunity for some new teams to be in the mix but we are anticipating that we will see some familiar team names working their way up the national rankings as the year progresses.

1. East Aurora: This is a senior dominated team led by State class C champion Kenny Vasbinder.  East Aurora has the runners to compete with the big schools and make a bid for NXN.

2. St. Anthony's: The NXN eighth place finisher last year returns four of its top seven.  This team is very solid through four and may need another runner to emerge to duplicate their success at the national level.  

3. Pittsford-Mendon: The reigning Class B champions return their top four.

4. Liverpool: Like F-M and St. Anthony's, the No. 4 finisher Liverpool has quality runners at the top to start with but has holes to fill at the back end of the lineup.  Three of the top five and four of seven are returning. 

5. Warwick Valley: Five of the top seven are back.

Watch List:  

Fayetteville-Manlius - It goes without saying, you can never take your eye off the defending champions. But heavy losses to graduation constitute a rebuilding year. 

Shenendehowa

Saratoga Springs

Guilderland

Corning

The New York Girls

By Adam Kopet

The New York Region is one of the hardest to rank. The defending national champions, Fayetteville-Manlius lost some key runners but that almost never slows down this dominant program. The door may be left open a bit for the rest of the state is someone can seize the opportunity. History shows that New York qualifiers are always key players at NXN. 

1. Saratoga Springs: In 2014, the Blue Streaks finished 10th at NXN with a very young team. Five of their varsity squad were eighth or ninth graders. Having graduated only one, this group could be on the rise once again.

2. Fayetteville-Manlius: Of the eleven years of Nike Cross Nationals (first called Nike Team Nationals), the Hornets have won eight titles, including seven in a row from 2006 to 2012 and then again last year. After graduating three from their varsity squad, F-M could be vulnerable. However, the team also has three in the Preseason Top 100 girls individual rankings.

3. Shenendehowa: The Plainsmen are a veteran squad, returning six runners, including three seniors, from last year's squad that finished 18th place finish in Portland. They will be pushing Saratoga Springs and Fayetteville-Manlius to the line all season.

4. Monroe-Woodbury: After finishing seventh at NY Feds last year, the Crusaders come back with a strong top four. However, this team still has a ways to go before they are challenging the elite of New York.

5. Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake: The Spartans were ninth at last year's Feds Championship. This year's squad is again led by Emily Digman who was a member of the seventh place 4x800 relay team at New Balance Outdoor Nationals.

Watch List:

Sachem East

Guilderland

Webster Thomas

East Aurora

Elmira

The Road to Portland and the Introduction of the 2015 Dyestat Nike Regional Rankings. 

The DyeStat regional rankings offer a glimpse of who we think has the best chance to qualify for Nike Cross Nationals in Portland, Ore. on Dec. 6. 

As such, the "regions" are established by the nine areas created by Nike for their qualifying purposes. There have been slight variations to this configuration over time but since 2008 they have remained consistent:  New York, given its dominance in the sport over the years, is a region unto itself.  California, given its massive population and success, is also a region and its qualifiers come from a power merge at the conclusion of the CIF state championships. The rest of the country is divided into 7 areas:

The Southeast:  Delaware, Maryland, Virgina, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and District of Columbia.

The South:  Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas and Mississippi.

The Heartland:  Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin.

The Midwest:  Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Missouri.

The Northeast:  New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island and New Hampshire.

The Southwest:  Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada.

The Northwest:  Wyoming, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Alaska and Hawaii.  

These regional meets are open to any high schools from its corresponding states. If there is high demand, selectors ensure that the top teams are guaranteed a spot in the championship race.   The top 2 teams in each of the eight regions and the top 2 teams from the California merge all automatically qualify for NXN.  Nike also invites the top five individuals from the nine regions.  In addition to the automatic qualifiers, there is a committee that selects the next four deserving teams in the nation, bringing the total of participating teams to 22 each year.  

Every two weeks on Dyestat, Paul Schmitz (boys) and Adam Kopet (girls) will examine each region and make predictions about which teams are most likely to auto qualify for NXN. It is a big country to cover and we welcome your feedback. DyeStatCal editor Erik Boal handles the California rankings.